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Fall Major AI Alternative Simulations

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Since I already ran it anyway, here are two variations of the AI data. The first one has the EU matches from Roster Royale removed. The second doesn't remove them but instead pretends like the ping disadvantage causes Moist and G1 to play 300 rating worse. Why 300? Arbitrary. Moist actually lost to a team 400 points below them, but that doesn't mean it was all due to ping. G1 actually beat a team 200 points below them. 300 is probably generous to EU, as Moist should've performed better even with the ping disadvantage.

AI predictions without Roster Royale EU Matches

2000 2000 2500 2500 1 Uncertainty: 96 Rating: 2488 2488 Karmine Corp LogoKarmine CorpExoTiiK, itachi, vatira. 2 Uncertainty: 100 Rating: 2457 2457 FaZe Clan LogoFaZe ClanFirstkiller, Sypical, mist 3 Uncertainty: 105 Rating: 2403 2403 G2 Esports LogoG2 EsportsJKnaps, Chicago, Atomic 4 Uncertainty: 93 Rating: 2398 2398 Gen.G Esports LogoGen.G Esportsnoly, ApparentlyJack, Chronic 5 Uncertainty: 100 Rating: 2397 2397 Spacestation Gaming LogoSpacestation GamingArsenal, Lj, Daniel 6 Uncertainty: 105 Rating: 2367 2367 Oxygen Esports LogoOxygen EsportsArchie, Joreuz, oaly. 7 Uncertainty: 96 Rating: 2358 2358 Team Liquid LogoTeam LiquidAcroniK., Atow., Oski 8 Uncertainty: 102 Rating: 2349 2349 Moist Esports LogoMoist EsportsAztraL, rise., Joyo 9 Uncertainty: 97 Rating: 2342 2342 Version1 LogoVersion1Torment, Comm, BeastMode 10 Uncertainty: 127 Rating: 2281 2281 Team Falcons LogoTeam FalconsAhmad, oKhaliD, trk511 11 Uncertainty: 97 Rating: 2277 2277 Quadrant LogoQuadrantRelatingwave, Kash, eekso 12 Uncertainty: 119 Rating: 2157 2157 PWR LogoPWRTorsos, Fever, Amphis 13 Uncertainty: 117 Rating: 2151 2151 The Club LogoThe ClubBemmz, Aztromick, Lostt. 14 Uncertainty: 137 Rating: 2145 2145 James Cheese LogoJames CheeseKamii, ReaLize, virtuoso 15 Uncertainty: 114 Rating: 2058 2058 Team Secret LogoTeam Secretnxghtt, Sad, kv1 16 Uncertainty: 119 Rating: 2037 2037 Pioneers LogoPioneersScrub, bananahead, Superlachie
2000 2000 2500 2500 1 Uncertainty: 116 Rating: 2636 2636 undefinedFirstkillerUS Flag 2 Uncertainty: 105 Rating: 2607 2607 undefinedvatira.FR Flag 3 Uncertainty: 105 Rating: 2601 2601 undefinedDanielUS Flag 4 Uncertainty: 107 Rating: 2485 2485 undefinedBeastModeUS Flag 5 Uncertainty: 96 Rating: 2466 2466 undefinedAtow.BE Flag 6 Uncertainty: 96 Rating: 2453 2453 undefinedExoTiiKFR Flag 7 Uncertainty: 112 Rating: 2452 2452 undefinedArchieEN Flag 8 Uncertainty: 94 Rating: 2442 2442 undefinedChronicUS Flag 9 Uncertainty: 92 Rating: 2423 2423 undefinedApparentlyJackEN Flag 10 Uncertainty: 104 Rating: 2405 2405 undefinedAtomicUS Flag 11 Uncertainty: 96 Rating: 2400 2400 undefinedOskiPL Flag 12 Uncertainty: 104 Rating: 2397 2397 undefinedJKnapsCA Flag 13 Uncertainty: 92 Rating: 2396 2396 undefineditachiMA Flag 14 Uncertainty: 104 Rating: 2390 2390 undefinedChicagoUS Flag 15 Uncertainty: 95 Rating: 2385 2385 undefinedmistUS Flag 16 Uncertainty: 103 Rating: 2377 2377 undefinedJoreuzNL Flag 17 Uncertainty: 100 Rating: 2362 2362 undefinedAztraLBE Flag 18 Uncertainty: 105 Rating: 2349 2349 undefinedrise.EN Flag 19 Uncertainty: 90 Rating: 2332 2332 undefinednolyEN Flag 20 Uncertainty: 131 Rating: 2327 2327 undefinedtrk511SA Flag 21 Uncertainty: 102 Rating: 2326 2326 undefinedJoyoEN Flag 22 Uncertainty: 95 Rating: 2320 2320 undefinedSypicalUS Flag 23 Uncertainty: 103 Rating: 2316 2316 undefinedLjUS Flag 24 Uncertainty: 132 Rating: 2313 2313 undefinedoKhaliDSA Flag 25 Uncertainty: 99 Rating: 2306 2306 undefinedKashEN Flag 26 Uncertainty: 120 Rating: 2283 2283 undefinedLostt.BR Flag 27 Uncertainty: 96 Rating: 2280 2280 undefinedRelatingwaveEN Flag 28 Uncertainty: 94 Rating: 2277 2277 undefinedCommUS Flag 29 Uncertainty: 121 Rating: 2246 2246 undefinedAztromickBR Flag 30 Uncertainty: 97 Rating: 2235 2235 undefinedeeksoEN Flag

Results simulation (removed matches)

Name Top1 Top2 Top4 Top8 Top 11 Top14 Top 16
Karmine Corp 0.259785 0.405498 0.615732 0.890271 0.961095 0.992644 1
Gen.G Esports 0.102555 0.214196 0.420106 0.759761 0.904035 0.979823 1
FaZe Clan 0.183647 0.317252 0.525166 0.821895 0.925922 0.982043 1
The Club 0.002279 0.011915 0.056539 0.252616 0.546327 0.872597 1
Team Liquid 0.063538 0.151974 0.341405 0.69919 0.87729 0.97639 1
Version1 0.047299 0.117329 0.277105 0.60625 0.814136 0.949864 1
Oxygen Esports 0.062405 0.143416 0.310721 0.631236 0.817411 0.945321 1
Spacestation Gaming 0.094814 0.197367 0.391589 0.720404 0.877414 0.968974 1
Team Falcons 0.018229 0.055511 0.159 0.42767 0.671821 0.887187 1
G2 Esports 0.09894 0.200984 0.391242 0.711705 0.866799 0.963615 1
Quadrant 0.01651 0.052389 0.154768 0.428221 0.681431 0.896235 1
Team Secret 0.000179 0.001608 0.011573 0.07829 0.250609 0.593483 1
Pioneers 0.000177 0.001392 0.010777 0.078956 0.272358 0.666681 1
Moist Esports 0.046349 0.112656 0.258455 0.560287 0.76392 0.922468 1
PWR 0.001804 0.009135 0.041287 0.180243 0.408936 0.727702 1
James Cheese 0.00149 0.007378 0.034535 0.153005 0.360496 0.674973 1

AI predictions with ping disadvantage = -300 rating

2000 2000 2500 2500 1 Uncertainty: 99 Rating: 2475 2475 FaZe Clan LogoFaZe ClanFirstkiller, Sypical, mist 2 Uncertainty: 96 Rating: 2458 2458 Karmine Corp LogoKarmine CorpExoTiiK, itachi, vatira. 3 Uncertainty: 104 Rating: 2419 2419 G2 Esports LogoG2 EsportsJKnaps, Chicago, Atomic 4 Uncertainty: 100 Rating: 2415 2415 Spacestation Gaming LogoSpacestation GamingArsenal, Lj, Daniel 5 Uncertainty: 92 Rating: 2412 2412 Gen.G Esports LogoGen.G Esportsnoly, ApparentlyJack, Chronic 6 Uncertainty: 97 Rating: 2359 2359 Version1 LogoVersion1Torment, Comm, BeastMode 7 Uncertainty: 104 Rating: 2338 2338 Oxygen Esports LogoOxygen EsportsArchie, Joreuz, oaly. 8 Uncertainty: 95 Rating: 2330 2330 Team Liquid LogoTeam LiquidAcroniK., Atow., Oski 9 Uncertainty: 98 Rating: 2303 2303 Moist Esports LogoMoist EsportsAztraL, rise., Joyo 10 Uncertainty: 127 Rating: 2280 2280 Team Falcons LogoTeam FalconsAhmad, oKhaliD, trk511 11 Uncertainty: 96 Rating: 2249 2249 Quadrant LogoQuadrantRelatingwave, Kash, eekso 12 Uncertainty: 119 Rating: 2157 2157 PWR LogoPWRTorsos, Fever, Amphis 13 Uncertainty: 117 Rating: 2154 2154 The Club LogoThe ClubBemmz, Aztromick, Lostt. 14 Uncertainty: 136 Rating: 2141 2141 James Cheese LogoJames CheeseKamii, ReaLize, virtuoso 15 Uncertainty: 114 Rating: 2062 2062 Team Secret LogoTeam Secretnxghtt, Sad, kv1 16 Uncertainty: 119 Rating: 2037 2037 Pioneers LogoPioneersScrub, bananahead, Superlachie
2000 2000 2500 2500 1 Uncertainty: 116 Rating: 2653 2653 undefinedFirstkillerUS Flag 2 Uncertainty: 105 Rating: 2619 2619 undefinedDanielUS Flag 3 Uncertainty: 105 Rating: 2576 2576 undefinedvatira.FR Flag 4 Uncertainty: 107 Rating: 2501 2501 undefinedBeastModeUS Flag 5 Uncertainty: 93 Rating: 2460 2460 undefinedChronicUS Flag 6 Uncertainty: 95 Rating: 2441 2441 undefinedAtow.BE Flag 7 Uncertainty: 92 Rating: 2431 2431 undefinedApparentlyJackEN Flag 8 Uncertainty: 104 Rating: 2422 2422 undefinedAtomicUS Flag 9 Uncertainty: 112 Rating: 2421 2421 undefinedArchieEN Flag 10 Uncertainty: 95 Rating: 2419 2419 undefinedExoTiiKFR Flag 11 Uncertainty: 103 Rating: 2414 2414 undefinedJKnapsCA Flag 12 Uncertainty: 104 Rating: 2407 2407 undefinedChicagoUS Flag 13 Uncertainty: 95 Rating: 2404 2404 undefinedmistUS Flag 14 Uncertainty: 95 Rating: 2371 2371 undefinedOskiPL Flag 15 Uncertainty: 91 Rating: 2368 2368 undefineditachiMA Flag 16 Uncertainty: 102 Rating: 2347 2347 undefinedJoreuzNL Flag 17 Uncertainty: 89 Rating: 2345 2345 undefinednolyEN Flag 18 Uncertainty: 94 Rating: 2339 2339 undefinedSypicalUS Flag 19 Uncertainty: 102 Rating: 2333 2333 undefinedLjUS Flag 20 Uncertainty: 131 Rating: 2326 2326 undefinedtrk511SA Flag 21 Uncertainty: 101 Rating: 2320 2320 undefinedrise.EN Flag 22 Uncertainty: 132 Rating: 2312 2312 undefinedoKhaliDSA Flag 23 Uncertainty: 97 Rating: 2298 2298 undefinedAztraLBE Flag 24 Uncertainty: 93 Rating: 2293 2293 undefinedCommUS Flag 25 Uncertainty: 99 Rating: 2290 2290 undefinedJoyoEN Flag 26 Uncertainty: 120 Rating: 2287 2287 undefinedLostt.BR Flag 27 Uncertainty: 99 Rating: 2276 2276 undefinedKashEN Flag 28 Uncertainty: 95 Rating: 2250 2250 undefinedRelatingwaveEN Flag 29 Uncertainty: 120 Rating: 2249 2249 undefinedAztromickBR Flag 30 Uncertainty: 98 Rating: 2239 2239 undefinedArsenalUS Flag

Results simulation (ping adjusted)

Name Top1 Top2 Top4 Top8 Top 11 Top14 Top 16
Karmine Corp 0.199209 0.342772 0.564759 0.8638 0.950891 0.990276 1
Gen.G Esports 0.122637 0.244191 0.460814 0.794657 0.920581 0.98319 1
FaZe Clan 0.224697 0.366496 0.579073 0.861621 0.945718 0.987472 1
The Club 0.002654 0.013126 0.062207 0.269201 0.565719 0.878373 1
Team Liquid 0.045507 0.119558 0.293256 0.652661 0.853832 0.970212 1
Version1 0.061389 0.145901 0.325824 0.665224 0.850089 0.961882 1
Oxygen Esports 0.04297 0.10866 0.258308 0.574276 0.779175 0.929961 1
Spacestation Gaming 0.12022 0.235822 0.443216 0.766876 0.901104 0.97554 1
Team Falcons 0.018802 0.057544 0.162728 0.436759 0.676339 0.886825 1
G2 Esports 0.123609 0.239933 0.44276 0.761487 0.895913 0.972996 1
Quadrant 0.010621 0.037154 0.12175 0.374002 0.631516 0.87079 1
Team Secret 0.00026 0.001922 0.013323 0.088279 0.272022 0.618896 1
Pioneers 0.000189 0.001475 0.011363 0.08411 0.281402 0.668637 1
Moist Esports 0.023894 0.068366 0.182214 0.461577 0.689148 0.888664 1
PWR 0.00191 0.009525 0.04304 0.186028 0.415051 0.729673 1
James Cheese 0.001432 0.007555 0.035365 0.159442 0.3715 0.686613 1