AI Ranks Spring Roster Moves
Edit: Added Oxygen roster move.
The trade window isn't yet over but we already know about a lot of roster moves. If you want to know more about all the drama and details of the moves, you should go check out ShiftRLE.
This post covers what the AI thinks about the roster moves of the top teams. The new rosters will automatically start appearing on the power rankings once they have been officially confirmed and entered into the Shift active roster lists. I'll add more rosters to this list once we know them for sure.
Team Vitality (+65)
+zen -saizen => Alpha54 Radosin zen
Superstar zen is finally able to play in the RLCS. Although he hasn't played nearly as much professional 3v3 as other RLCS players, he has already made waves. His raw rating (2436) is already higher than saizen's (2266) and Radosin's (2416) but the uncertainty about his rating is super high. That is also reflected in Vitality's rating. All the ratings I show on my leaderboards are conservative estimates because those are more accurate on average. That being said, a larger uncertainty means that the team and player ratings can change really fast. If zen wins Vitality the first regional, he will likely already be ranked in the top 10. For now, their conservative placement has the team in almost the same spot as last split.
Team BDS (+134)
+rise. -Extra => M0nkey M00n Seikoo rise.
The fact that Extra isn't even top 100 according to my rankings has been used as a meme and an example of why stats aren't everything. Although, I do agree that he is probably getting a bit underrated by the AI, I think most of the (reddit?) community are overrating him. The prediction for this roster change is that they'll be pretty much exactly as good as Team Liquid. This should make it a breeze for them to get to the Major, although the seeding is not quite in their favor. I know that at least one person is confident in my predictions, and that would be rise. He wouldn't be making this move if he isn't expecting these kind of results, because there is a realistic chance that Team BDS could miss out on worlds even if they make the Spring Major. If Quadrant do disband as rumored, that would help them a lot.
+oaly. -MaRc_By_8. => AtomiK Dorito oaly.
Marc is another player that doesn't light up the scoreboard because of his playstyle, while oaly just has a pretty standard solid playstyle. I think a change like this will show whether AtomiK's and Dorito's ratings have been inflated. If they haven't, this will unleash an even scarier, more consistent G1. Another question mark might be the one split pause that oaly has had. Can he deliver the same level he did in Fall? According to the AI, this change puts them in a good spot to go to the Major again, despite the improved Vitality and BDS.
Moist Esports (+24)
+Kash -Aztral => Joyo juicy Kash
It might seem like Moist continues to drop top talent, but after the poor Winter split, Kash is considered an upgrade. It's not a big one though, and Moist can only hope that this change will also solve playstyle and potential internal issues if they wish to make it back to LAN. Those are factors that aren't considered in these predictions.
Oxygen Esports (-51)
+eekso -rise. => archie Joreuz eekso
Replacing rise with eekso is not a choice that the AI supports, but it's also not like there were any players as good as rise available either. Oxygen are still in a decent spot to make the major, but with the rest of the competition stepping it up, it's likely going to be a tough fight for them in this split.
Soniqs => Monkeys (+24)
+Rezears -arju => Mittaen Smokez Rezears
After Tundra had a horrible split, Rezears decided to move over to Monkeys and replace arju. Although this should upgrade the team's potential, it is still unlikely that Soniqs will be competing for the Major spots. Maybe Rezears is getting undervalued though, considering Tundra went 1-8 in Groups.
+Daniel -torment => BeastMode Daniel comm
Daniel outranks torment by almost 350 rating points and that is after a bad split (for both tbf). As such the predicted team rating goes up by about a 1/3 of that. People are expecting a superteam, but after the poor split from both teams and only BeastMode keeping up his rating, they actually fall just short of G2 and Complexity. That being said, NA look like they have a very clear top 5 now, and V1 will likely be very motivated to win. Daniel has already peaked #1 in the world in my rankings for 1 day. If he can get to that level again, then this team has the potential for best in the world.
+hockser -Daniel => Arsenal Lj hockser
This is a severe loss of talent for SSG, and if it's anything like what happened to Moist in the previous split, then that means the AI is being generous here. Daniel had a comparitively bad split for his standards, so it's not exclusively his teammates' fault for missing the Major. However, it also seemed to indicate that Arsenal and Lj weren't able to step it up to cover for that. So, how are they gonna do that completely without Daniel now? I guess we'll have to wait and see. Lj has shown that he can be individually insane at 2v2, and maybe Daniel being gone is all he needed to unlock this hidden next level of gameplay in 3v3. If that doesn't happen, I believe this might be the end of SSG competing for Majors.
Knights => KOI (0)
+Gyro -zineel => sosa CHEESE Gyro
KOI is buying out the Knights roster but keeping one of their own players. This makes sense at first glance, but it is rather interesting that they would keep Gyro. Talent wise Aqua is certainly up there and would've been evaluated as a significant upgrade for the team. One can only assume that they had other reasons for going against Aqua. Aside from all that, Gyro even has a lower rating than zineel, but due to the maths of the weighted average I use, this doesn't really have a significant impact on the team.
KOI => G League (+34)
+zineel -Gyro => Aqua night. zineel
Dropped from KOI and doing a player swap with the former Knights, this team is estimated to be a minor improvement. Maybe this roster will be a bit more threatening to top teams. They remain lower rated than the roster KOI has picked up though.
Team Axle (-3)
+Taroco -ayjacks => gimmick Toastie Taroco
I haven't followed this team at all, so I can't provide any insights. The AI evaluates this as a complete sideways move, but maybe some fresh blood will help.
Vision => Twisted Minds (-8)
+Venom -B2seL => Senzo Smw. Venom
With MENA looking like they might not get 3 spots at Worlds this time, teams are trying to make moves to compete with Falcons and Rule One. The problem seems to be the relative lack of available players at that level. Smw can maybe compete with M7sN, but the rest of the Falcons and Rule One players are another step above. This move doesn't really change anything about that.